Goodbye 2025, Hello tomorrow.

8 likely changes to the New Zealand car market in 2026. 

1. Emerging brands are smashing it. But wait, there is way more to come. 

   
   

While 2025 was tough for some brands, the volume from emerging brands was nothing short of spectacular. While some commentators, Boost Auto included expected emerging brands to be electric first, this hasn’t been the case. There is a caveat here, which we will explore later. Emerging brand volume essentially doubled, added over 8000 units to the annual total and were responsible for over 75% of all market growth*. 

Chery Group and BYD were the real winners. BYD became responsible for nearly all the growth in PHEV, and Chery’s three brands delivered over 2500 units.  

We are often asked if there is room for more brands. Our view is an emphatic yes, as long as there is value for consumers and the brand is trusted. We have another eight or more brands to arrive. The challenge for the next wave of brands is to find the right distributor and for that distributor to find the right dealer partner.  

So new brands will grow the market, and some more than others. Value remains important. Ford, Volkswagen and Skoda have been hit hard in 2025, illustrating that it's not legacy versus emerging, that’s the battlefield. Toyota has performed strongly and gained volume. The newer entrants that offer value will thrive. Where this leaves the semi-premium Chinese brands in a small market like New Zealand remains to be seen. 

2. EV Conversion picks up, but anti-EV sentiment grows.  

   
   

The tone has changed. In 2020 electric was the new tomorrow and coming fast, whereas reading headlines (and reviewing LinkedIn messages) there appears much more anti EV sentiment. Yet the fundamentals of switching to zero emissions remain strong (stronger in New Zealand than other markets), given that we generate most of our electricity with renewables and don’t product any refined fuels here yet import around $7bn them. Even market stats globally show that BEV and PHEV sales are up around the world, and up 20%  and 125% respectively in NZ. The narrative of EV sales declining doesn’t match the narrative.   

More and more consumers are discovering the delights of affordable used EVs often as second cars. While residual values have been weak on new vehicles bought two three years ago, oversupply was part of the cause – that over supply has now largely vanished.  

However, we are seeing more anti-EV sentiment, especially in the US, where EVs have become politicised which muddies the waters somewhat. The bright spot in the horizon is that 2026 is an election year. If the minor parties can pressure labour or national to have a more joined up electric policy all New Zealand consumers stand to gain.  

3. Used car groups focus on servicing. 

   
   

The used import business has been tough in 2025, and some respite has been offered with the weakening of the Clean Car Standards. However, there are more markets eying imports, and even clean cars are hard to source. Faced with squeezed margins some of the bigger players will use their trusted brand name and reach to focus on creating customers for life through a focus on service. Expect a national chain like Bridgestone, VTNZ or Oil Changers, Pit Stop or Advantage Tyres (previously Beaurepairs) to link up with a used car brand to provide additional reach.  

4. RUC labels to stay, as RUC for all, falls over. 

   
   

The Government’s much anticipated RUC for all, signalled for 2026 will become too controversial, and the costs of implementing will be too high and will be shelved. Politically it wouldn’t be a winning topic or the thing to be debating when a tough and close election is round the corner. While the idea of a fairer road funding policy is needed the RUC will be kicked down the road for another election cycle.  

5. Government falls short of its 2030 charger commitment. 

   
   

The New Zealand Government committed to delivering 10,000 public electric vehicle (EV) chargers by 2030. But at the end of 2024 there were only 1378 charge points and so the government would have to install another 1400 plus chargers every year to get to the number. Without an increase in demand for chargers, (i.e. more EVs on the road) the government will fail. 2025 install numbers aren’t yet final, but the run rate is significantly behind where it needs to be to meet the target.   

6. First Chinese owned dealer group opens doors – creates waves.  

   
   

Chinese BYD dealer group Harmony Auto is opening up its first New Zealand store to represent Denza and is planning a second store in Christchurch.

Ordinarily New Zealand dealers are owned by either New Zealand business with the exceptions of Sime Motors and Eagers, and Autosports Group. Sime have been in New Zealand for over 25 years and there have been no established substantial foreign owned dealer groups in recent years (other than the sale of Auckland City BMW). Harmony has a big network overseas and will come to New Zealand with ambitious targets and a hunger that we might not have seen in NZ before. This is likely to cause waves. It has the potential to disrupt the market, especially as it will be entering the business with no aftersales business yet will be keen to fill its workshops.  

7. Emissions gets talked about…again. 

   
   

Having failed to create a meaningful and sustainable emissions reduction policy with cross party support over the last two election cycles, reducing vehicle emissions will be once again in the spotlight.  

This time around parties will sidestep a CCS mechanism and start discussing in-service tailpipe emissions, in other words emissions testing at time of WOF. New Zealand has an old fleet, with over 1m million vehicles on the road that are over 20 years old (source: Boost Auto / NZTA) and 20-year-old emission standards were weak (Euro IV anyone?). While older cars tend to be driven less, their tailpipe emissions are significantly higher than those of a modern vehicle given that may have been modified, some may have had catalytic converter removal, and they are coming to the end of their serviceable life.  

8. The next wave of affordable EVs become tomorrow’s dirt-cheap motoring. 

   
   

It’s no surprise that Toyota Aqua is a big seller. It is cheap to buy and run and is reliable. The high theft risk not withstanding, Aqua makes real world sense when consumers want a transportation appliance.  

Today’s new affordable EVs will become tomorrow’s motoring nirvana. The next wave of emerging brands will offer Aqua frugality on steroids. Entering the market, imminently affordable models from BYD, GWM, Dongfeng Nammi, and Wuling, will shake up the market for oldies, property managers, local councils and small businesses wanting wheels without the costs; and their presence hasn’t been felt yet. But imagine these sub $30K vehicles two to three years old with negligible fuel and maintenance costs; it's only a matter of time before these cheaper EV’s get pressed into service as second cars, delivery service and with a new wave of consumers offering a loyal following. 

The pace of chance shows no sign of abating. Outside of the top 8 are pressures from Europe on End of Life Directives which is aiming to encourage more recycling and to restrict the use of hazardous substances in vehicle production. The restriction makes sense, but once again creates complexities for countries that rely on unofficial imports. This legislation at worst has the potential to upend our supply of cheap used cars in the future, and to focus our efforts on end of life recycling, depending upon your outlook. ELV Directives wont impact us straight away, but it is likely that they will limit exports, and manufacturers will be responsible for product stewardship, and that is harder to do when your products are not in the country where your recycling facilities are.  

ELV Directives are once again a reminder that as a small market we have limited influence on what vehicles we take from a manufacturing point of view, and that we are influenced by what happens overseas. Sometimes however we need to plan our destiny based on what we know is coming our way.  

 This article was originally published in December 2025

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Anthony MacLean is the Principal of Boost Auto, a New Zealand automotive consultancy based in Auckland. With nearly 30 years of experience across retail, sales, marketing and brand development in the UK and New Zealand, Anthony has held senior roles at MG, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan NZ, Blue Wing Honda, and Tourism Holdings. He serves on the Drive Electric board and works with dealers, distributors and OEM brands across New Zealand.